RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS

Flack Global Metal’s Reports and Analysis hub provides comprehensive insights from the Flack Capital Markets team into the dynamic ferrous industry, offering real-time, in-depth reports and analytical perspectives. Explore the latest trends, market intelligence, and strategic assessments to stay up-to-date and make informed decisions in the ever-evolving metals sector.

MACRO FLASH REPORT

MAY 1, 2024
While the FOMC is leaving rates unchanged at 5.25-5.5%, today’s statement is signals that the FED is taking a longer view on inflation trends while acknowledging that the recent data is coming in hotter than they initial anticipated. Leading up to the statement and press conference, the market was anticipating a hawkish turn (i.e., less rate cuts, also starting later) and that is exactly what was delivered. We still maintain the belief that July will be the first cut, but also believe that will be the only cut in 2024.
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May 2, 2024
Fundamental Report
Imports remain elevated (next week will give us the first look at May), as we move out of spring maintenance season with domestic production at its lowest level since late January. Domestic spot prices are clearly losing their upward momentum and will likely test their previously held floor of $800 with global prices starting to trickle higher.
Apr 30, 2024
Macro Flash Report
Overall, the April FED Manufacturing surveys point to continued contraction in the manufacturing sector, although the fundamentals are improving. The ISM Manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside in March, but April is currently expected to print down from 50.3 to 50 (still technically expanding). While there are underlying signs of improvement, we expect the manufacturing sector to tread water over the next 3 months. Therefore, a brief return to contraction territory in April would not be surprising.
Apr 26, 2024
Macro Report
Most importantly, inflation data continues to come in above expectations, while the industrial side of the economy remains on a road to recovery.
Apr 24, 2024
Fundamental Report
March census data for import arrivals came in below estimates and domestic production is on a two-week down trend, as we enter the “peak” of spring outages. This moderate restriction of supply is an important factor in why spot pricing has been so rangebound for the last 2 months.
Apr 23, 2024
Macro Flash Report
Overall, the housing sector was mixed in March, however, looking forward the signal of consumer resilience and strong demand for housing remains even though the narrative around interest rates has dramatically shifted in the hawkish direction.
Apr 19, 2024
Macro Report
Housing data came in softer this week while industrial/manufacturing data show a continued recovery. A stable labor market and a strong consumer continued to push back the markets expectations for when the first cut will occur.

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